VALAR WATCHTake action

Radiation Exposure

IF VALAR WANTS TO REFUTE THE CALCULATIONS THEY SHOULD PUBLISH THEIR OWN NUMBERS

Reading key: Red bold: alarming for health or safety Bold: a key safety or health point Green bold: lowers the risk, or in Valar's favor

Project Beehive's 456 reactors, as NPR reported them: by our math, the radioactive leftovers of 6 to 10 large reactors, in less uranium but much more bulk

In plain terms: On September 30, 2026, NPR reported on Valar's 'Project Beehive.' About 456 small nuclear reactors would power data centers near Price, and the site would also have a place to make fuel and places to store nuclear waste. NPR read Valar's proposal to the federal government; it was not found in public records.
Read the rest of the plain-terms summary

No details of these reactors were found in Valar's public documents either. So we did the math with ranges from published reference numbers, and say where those numbers are thin. NPR gives two sizes: 456 units of 25 megawatts each, which would make 11.4 gigawatts of electricity, and about 9.6 gigawatts. We did every calculation both ways. Same heat, same leftovers. A reactor makes heat by splitting uranium atoms, and every split leaves radioactive pieces behind. So the leftovers depend on how much heat is made, not on whether it comes from a few big reactors or many small ones. Beehive's reactors together would make as much heat as 6 to 10 of today's big U.S. reactors, and so about the same leftovers: each year, 230 to 480 kilograms of cesium-137 and about 100 to 300 kilograms of strontium-90. Each takes about 30 years to lose half its strength. How much used fuel? This fuel is tiny grains of uranium packed in graphite, a form of carbon. Many reactors of this type use fuel pebbles, which DOE describes as billiard ball-sized; Valar has not said what size or shape of fuel Beehive would use, so this page uses a standard 6 cm pebble as a stand-in. Beehive would use up 4 to 30 million of them a year. Piled loose, they would fill from a quarter of an Olympic swimming pool to more than two pools a year, and 10 to 90 pools over 40 years, before any storage containers. Fuel blocks like those in Valar's Emery County test reactor would fill about a third of a pool to one and a half pools a year. With all that graphite, the used fuel would take 11 to 64 times the space of used fuel from big reactors making the same heat. There is another side, and it is in Valar's favor. The used fuel would hold less uranium: 0.29 to 0.75 of what those big reactors would leave. Studies also find it gives off less heat for each unit of electricity made, and our numbers agree unless the reactors turn the least of their heat into electricity. One study found it could fit in a smaller underground repository. If the reactors run less of the year, there is less waste. And if Valar's reactors turn more of their heat into electricity than big U.S. reactors do (33% to 45%, against about 30% to 34%), they make less heat, and fewer leftovers, for each unit of electricity; our count of 6 to 10 big reactors already includes this. What one fuel pebble does. We used the same method as our check of Valar's CT-scan claim (pf-007). Radiation dose is measured in millisieverts (mSv); a normal CT scan gives the body 1 to 10 mSv. Holding one used fuel pebble for five minutes, a day after it leaves a reactor, would give the whole body about 300 mSv (100 to 760, depending on the unknowns), about 30 times the top of a CT scan's range. The skin of the hand holding it would get about 120,000 mSv (42,000 to 300,000); U.S. rules let a radiation worker get 500 mSv to the hands in a whole year. The pebble cools fast at first. In Valar's favor: after about a year (4 months to 6 years), five minutes with one pebble gives the body about one CT scan's worth of radiation. But the hand would still get more than a worker's yearly hand limit for about 15 years (2.6 to 54). A whole block used in a power reactor, or many pebbles together, is much stronger: standing half a meter from one such block for five minutes gives more than a CT scan for about 80 years (60 to 140). What we do not know. No Valar statement of how much heat each reactor makes, which fuel shape it will use, or how long the fuel stays in was found in public records. At a town hall in Price on September 29, 2026, Valar officials said used fuel from its Carbon County project would first be stored on site in dry, sealed casks under federal licensing, and that a national storage or disposal option could be used in the future, but that no specific long-term disposal site outside the area had been identified (ETV News). NPR mentions waste storage on the site, but no written plan for it was found in public records. That is why our answers are ranges.

Information about radiation and waste

How much radiation one piece of used fuel gives off, how long it stays that strong, and how much used fuel the fleet would leave.

How much radiation is dangerous

Whole-body doses. The same dose received in a short time does more harm than spread over years.

  1. 1 mSv a yearThe most a licensed nuclear operation may add, in a year, to the dose of a member of the public.10 CFR 20.1301: dose limits for individual members of the public (Legal Information Institute (Cornell))
  2. 50 mSv a yearThe most a radiation worker may receive to the whole body in a year.10 CFR 20.1201: occupational dose limits for adults (Legal Information Institute (Cornell))
  3. 100 mSv, onceAbout 99 of 100 people would not get cancer from a one-time whole-body dose this size or lower.Radiation Health Effects (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency)
  4. 302 mSvOne used fuel pebble held for five minutes, a day after it leaves the reactor: this page's central estimate (100 to 760 mSv, depending on the unknowns).
  5. About 750 mSv and up, in minutes to hoursRadiation sickness (acute radiation syndrome) takes more than 0.75 gray in a short time, at least about 750 mSv for gamma rays; it can sometimes kill over the following days or weeks.Radiation Health Effects (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency)
  6. 4,000 to 5,000 mSv, in a very short timeKills about half of the people exposed within 30 days (the 'lethal dose', LD 50/30). The NRC gives the range as 4 to 5 sieverts; its own figure in rem, 400 to 450, is 4 to 4.5 sieverts.Glossary: Lethal dose (LD) (U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, 2021-03-09)
The hand holding the pebble, for the same five minutes
1 day after
240×
the most a radiation worker's hands may get in a whole year (84 to 600 times, depending on the unknowns)
1 year after
7.6×
that whole-year limit (2.0 to 34 times)
10 years after
1.3×
that whole-year limit (0.52 to 4.2 times)
Five minutes of holding it gives the skin more than that whole-year limit until about
15 years
after it leaves the reactor (2.6 to 54 years, depending on the unknowns)

U.S. rules let a radiation worker's hands get at most 500 mSv in a whole year.

More about this chart

The skin touching the pebble gets a very large dose at that spot. That is a different measurement from the whole-body numbers above, so we compare it with the hand limit, not CT scans. We counted only gamma rays, which pass through things easily. The pebble's graphite shell stops most beta rays, which cannot get through much material; the few that escape would add an amount we did not work out. The one-day numbers also assume full power until removal; a pebble that ran its last pass at lower power would give somewhat less.

If someone held one used fuel pebble for five minutes, how many CT scans' worth of radiation would they get?

1 day after it leaves the reactor

1 day: about 30 CT scans

About 30 CT scans (302 mSv). Depending on the unknowns: 100 to 760 mSv, about 10 to about 76 scans.

1 month after

1 month: about 9 CT scans

About 9 CT scans (86 mSv). Depending on the unknowns: 29 to 220 mSv, about 3 to about 22 scans.

1 year after

1 year: about 1 CT scan

About 1 CT scan (9.2 mSv). Depending on the unknowns: 2.4 to 41 mSv, about a quarter of a scan to about 4 scans.

10 years after

10 years: about one-sixth of a CT scan

About one-sixth of a CT scan (1.6 mSv). Depending on the unknowns: 0.63 to 5.1 mSv, about one-sixteenth of a scan to about half a scan.

  • one ring = one CT scan (10 mSv; mSv is explained below)
  • a part-filled ring = part of a scan

A CT scan is a medical X-ray picture of the inside of the body. One gives about 1 to 10 millisieverts (mSv), the unit for how much radiation a body takes in.

More about this chart

We counted each scan as 10 mSv, the top of that range, so these counts are on the low side. Under each row, the range shows the lowest and highest answers the unknowns allow. This is the dose to a person's whole body with the pebble about half a meter away, about arm's length. It is a 'what if' that shows how strong the fuel is. In 2025 Valar wrote that holding the used fuel from Ward One, a small reactor making 100 kilowatts of heat, for five minutes gives the same radiation exposure as a CT scan. We use the same yardstick (we checked that claim in an earlier fact-check, pf-007). Ward One was planned to run for less than a month. Fuel in a reactor that makes electricity, like Beehive's, works much harder and stays in for years, so it builds up far more radioactive leftovers. In Valar's favor: about a year after it leaves the reactor (4 months to 6 years, depending on the unknowns), five minutes with one pebble gives about one CT scan's worth of radiation. No statement of which fuel shape Valar will use was found in public records. A fuel stick like those in the blocks made for its Ward 250 test reactor (about 1.3 cm wide and 5 cm long), if used in a power reactor like Beehive's, gives about the same whole-body numbers: about one CT scan's worth after about a year. A whole fuel block used in a power reactor, or many pebbles together, is much stronger: standing half a meter from one such block for five minutes would give more than one CT scan's worth for about 80 years (60 to 140).

Cesium-137's half-life: about 30 years
When the last reactor stops100%: about 7,600 or 9,100 kg
30 years after it stopsabout 50%: about 3,800 or 4,500 kg
60 years after it stopsabout 25%: about 1,900 or 2,300 kg
90 years after it stopsabout 13%: about 960 or 1,100 kg
120 years after it stopsabout 6%: about 480 or 570 kg
150 years after it stopsabout 3%: about 240 or 290 kg
skipping 180 to 270 years
300 years after it stopsabout 0.1% (too thin to see): about 7.6 or 9.0 kg

How it builds up: while the reactors run, the fleet would make about 305 or 363 kg of cesium-137 a year, as some of what was made earlier decays.

More about this chart

Over 40 years that is about 12,200 or 14,500 kg made, of which about 7,600 or 9,100 kg would be left when the last reactor stops: the top bar. From then on none is added. Cesium-137 and strontium-90 are the two main radioactive leftovers that matter for the first few hundred years. Half the cesium-137, and half its radiation, is gone after about 30 years (its half-life), half the rest in the next 30 years, and so on. Strontium-90 fades at about the same speed (half every 29 years). This is true of used fuel from any reactor, big or small; it is not special to Valar's design. In each row, the first amount uses NPR's 9.6 gigawatts and the second 456 × 25 megawatts. The bars are 30 years apart, about one human generation; after the skipped years, the last bar jumps ahead to 300 years. This picture shows only cesium-137: used fuel holds other leftovers too, and this proof does not work out how long those last. The amounts are for the whole fleet if each reactor runs 40 years (no Valar figure was found); depending on the unknowns, the starting amount could be 5,700 to 12,000 kg.

If each reactor ran 40 years, Beehive's used fuel would fill about 30 Olympic swimming pools, as fuel pebbles or as fuel blocks

Beehive's used fuel, if it were loose standard 6 cm fuel pebbles (billiard ball-sized)

about 28 pools (33 using 456 × 25 megawatts); 10 to 90 depending on the unknowns

About 28 pools using NPR's 9.6 gigawatts, 33 using 456 × 25 megawatts. Depending on the unknowns, as few as 10 or as many as 90.

Big U.S. reactors making the same heat: their used fuel assemblies (bundles of fuel rods)

about 1.1 pools (1.3 using 456 × 25 megawatts); 0.73 to 1.7 depending on the unknowns

About 1.1 pools using NPR's 9.6 gigawatts, 1.3 using 456 × 25 megawatts (0.73 to 1.7 depending on the unknowns). The pebbles would take about 25 times as much room (11 to 64 times). Fuel blocks like those made for Valar's Ward 250 test reactor would take about 23 times as much room (16 to 42 times).

  • Beehive, using NPR's 9.6 gigawatts
  • Beehive: more using 456 × 25 megawatts
  • big U.S. reactors, using NPR's 9.6 gigawatts
  • big U.S. reactors: more using 456 × 25 megawatts
  • how high it could go
  • how low it could go

Each box is one Olympic pool, counted as 50 meters long, 25 meters wide and 2 meters deep.

More about this chart

Both rows count only the fuel, before any storage containers, which would take more room. Standard fuel pebbles are graphite spheres 6 cm across (DOE calls them billiard ball-sized) packed with tiny grains of uranium fuel (TRISO particles, each about the size of a poppy seed). Graphite, a kind of carbon, makes up most of each pebble, so the pile is big though it holds little uranium. No operating life for Valar's reactors was found in public records; we used 40 years, and 20 years would leave about half as much. Valar has not said which fuel form Beehive would use. Its Ward 250 test reactor in Emery County uses graphite fuel blocks; blocks like those would fill about 26 pools using NPR's 9.6 gigawatts and 31 using 456 × 25 megawatts (14 to 59 depending on the unknowns).

In Valar's favor: Beehive's used fuel would hold less uranium
Big U.S. reactors making the same heatwhat big reactors' used fuel holds (counted as 1)
Beehivea little less than half as much: 0.42 times (0.29 to 0.75, depending on the unknowns)
  • how high it could go (0.75)
  • how low it could go (0.29)

Beehive's used fuel, as pebbles or blocks, would take more room but hold less uranium: about 0.42 times what big reactors' used fuel holds for the same heat (0.29 to 0.75), spread through much more graphite.

More about this chart

Studies also find it gives off less heat for each unit of electricity made; our numbers agree, unless the reactors turn the least of their heat into electricity. One study found it could fit in a smaller repository, a deep underground storage site.

Doses, pebble counts and volumes use a standard 6 cm pebble: why that stand-in, and where its size comes from.

The numbers behind these pictures: One 6 cm fuel pebble, whole body at 50 cm, five minutes
One 6 cm fuel pebble, whole body at 50 cm, five minutes About these numbers
WhatCentralLow to highFor scale
cooled 1 day302 mSv100 to 760 mSva typical CT: 1 to 10 mSv
cooled 30 days86 mSv29 to 220 mSv
cooled 1 year9.2 mSv2.4 to 41 mSv
cooled 2 years5.6 mSv1.4 to 27 mSv
cooled 5 years2.8 mSv0.87 to 12 mSv
cooled 10 years1.6 mSv0.63 to 5.1 mSv
Skin of the hand touching that pebble (gamma rays only), cooled 1 day120,000 mSv42,000 to 300,000 mSvU.S. yearly limit for a worker's hands: 500 mSv
same, cooled 1 year3,800 mSv980 to 17,000 mSv
same, cooled 10 years648 mSv260 to 2,100 mSv
Cooling until five minutes = one 10 mSv CT (pebble, whole body)0.93 years0.35 to 5.9 yearsfavors Valar: about a year
Cooling until five minutes = 1 mSv (pebble, whole body)22 years3.8 to 63 yearsbottom of the CT range
One Ward 250 compact (1.27 x 5.08 cm), whole body, cooled 1 day / 1 year / 10 years353 / 11 / 1.9 mSv160-640 / 3.8-35 / 1.0-4.3 mSv
Skin touching a compact (gamma only), cooled 1 day / 1 year1,100,000 / 37,000 mSv530,000-2,000,000 / 13,000-110,000 mSvbeta particles would add more
Cooling until five minutes = one CT: one compact; 50 cm from a whole Ward 250-type block (49 kg)1.1 years; 81 years0.52-5.1; 60-140 years
The numbers behind these pictures: The fleet, per year (9.6 GWe basis / 11.4 GWe basis)
The fleet, per year (9.6 GWe basis / 11.4 GWe basis) About these numbers
WhatCentralLow to highFor scale
Used fuel, metric tons of uranium (heavy metal)66 / 78 t37 to 150 tU.S. reactors: 2,000 to 2,200 t a year
As fuel pebbles: number9.4 / 11 million4.1 to 30 million
As fuel pebbles: weight and loose volume1,900 / 2,300 t; 1,700 / 2,100 m³820 to 6,100 t; 620 to 5,600 m³0.25 to 2.3 Olympic pools
As Ward 250 blocks (as DOE cleared them): number56 / 66 thousand31 to 130 thousand
As Ward 250 blocks: weight and volume2,700 / 3,200 t; 1,600 / 1,900 m³1,500 to 6,200 t; 890 to 3,700 m³0.36 to 1.5 Olympic pools
Cesium-137 made305 / 363 kg230 to 482 kg (19.9 to 41.8 million curies)5.57% to 12.6% of all U.S. reactors'
Strontium-90 made149 / 176 kg105 to 288 kg (14.5 to 39.6 million curies)
Over 40 years per unit: used uranium2,600 / 3,100 t1,500 to 6,000 tplus 82 to 350 t in the cores at the end
Over 40 years: fuel pebbles / Ward 250 blocks, Olympic pools28 / 33; 26 / 3110.0 to 90; 14 to 59before canisters and casks
Over 40 years, for comparison: large-reactor used fuel assemblies for the same heat, counted bare like the pebbles, Olympic pools1.1 / 1.30.73 to 1.7the pebbles take about 25 times the room
Cesium-137 present when the last unit stops (40 years each)7,600 / 9,100 kg5,700 to 12,000 kgabout 0.10 of it 100 years later
Uranium in used fuel vs large reactors making the same heat0.42 times0.29 to 0.75 timesfavors Valar: less uranium
Used-fuel volume vs large reactors making the same heat: fuel pebbles / Ward 250 blocks25 / 23 times11 to 64 / 16 to 42 timesstudies: 12 to 30 times

Why a 6 cm pebble stands in for Valar's fuel

Valar has not published the size or shape of the fuel its Beehive reactors would use; no Valar statement of it was found in public records. How much radiation one piece of used fuel gives off depends on how much fuel is in that piece, so the calculation needs a size. This page uses a standard one and says so.

The stand-in is the standard fuel pebble of pebble-bed reactors: a graphite sphere 6 cm across, with a 2.5 cm fueled core inside a 0.5 cm fuel-free shell, holding 5 to 9 g of uranium (7 g in the central case). Those figures come from Idaho National Laboratory's pebble-bed benchmark (INL/EXT-20-60236, Tables 1 to 3), with Argonne and Sandia reference tables for the range. The U.S. Department of Energy describes such pebbles as 'billiard ball-sized'.

The fuel in Valar's Ward 250 test reactor is a different shape: small cylinders called compacts, about 0.5 by 2 inches (1.27 by 5.08 cm), 170 of them in each 49 kg graphite block, according to DOE's 20 May 2026 review of the fuel's shipping package. This page works that case out too: one compact held for five minutes gives about as much radiation as one pebble (353 against 302 mSv whole-body, one day after removal).

At its 29 September town hall in Price, Valar officials explained TRISO fuel, which ETV News described as made of 'small, resilient particles'. DOE puts each particle at about the size of a poppy seed. The particles sit inside a pebble or a compact; the doses on this page are for a whole pebble or compact, not a single particle.

Information about heat

How much heat the 456 reactors would make, and the heat their used fuel keeps giving off.

456 small reactors would make about as much heat as 7 or 8 big ones
456 small reactors

The 456 small reactors NPR reported. Each dot is one reactor.

=about the same heat as
about 7 big reactors (8 using 456 × 25 megawatts); 6 to 10 depending on the unknowns

Big U.S. reactors making the same heat: about 7 using NPR's 9.6 gigawatts of electricity, 8 using 456 × 25 megawatts. Depending on the unknowns, as few as 6 or as many as 10.

  • using NPR's 9.6 gigawatts of electricity
  • more if it is 456 × 25 megawatts of electricity (11.4 gigawatts)
  • how high it could go (10)
  • how low it could go (6)

Reactors make heat by splitting atoms, and turn part of that heat into electricity.

More about this chart

Every split leaves radioactive leftovers behind. So the same amount of heat leaves about the same amount of leftovers, whether it comes from a few big reactors or many small ones.

A watt measures how fast energy is made or used; a megawatt is a million watts, and a gigawatt is 1,000 megawatts. NPR's numbers are electricity. NPR gives two sizes for Beehive: about 9.6 gigawatts in all, or 456 reactors of 25 megawatts each, which adds up to 11.4 gigawatts. NPR does not say why they differ, so every picture shows both. A reactor makes about 2 to 3 times as much heat as electricity, so 9.6 gigawatts of electricity means about 24 gigawatts (24,000 megawatts) of heat. A big reactor here means a typical one in the U.S. today, making about 3,400 megawatts of heat.

The blue dots and the dark gray circles are drawn to cover the same amount of space, because they stand for the same heat (using NPR's 9.6 gigawatts); the lighter and outlined circles show the other answers. In Valar's favor: its kind of reactor may turn more of its heat into electricity than big U.S. reactors do (33% to 45%, against about 30% to 34%). If so, for each gigawatt of electricity it makes less heat, and fewer leftovers, than a big reactor does. Our numbers already count this: the 7 uses 40%, and the lowest answer, 6, uses 45%.

'The unknowns' are the things we could not pin down. Most are reactor details not found in Valar's public documents, like how much heat each reactor makes and how long its fuel is used. They also include which of NPR's two numbers is right, and some details the published science leaves open. Our ranges show the lowest and highest answers they allow. Each end needs every unknown to go the same way at once, so the ends show how far the answer could go, not how likely it is.

The numbers behind these pictures: The fleet, per year (9.6 GWe basis / 11.4 GWe basis)
The fleet, per year (9.6 GWe basis / 11.4 GWe basis) About these numbers
WhatCentralLow to highFor scale
Heat made24.0 / 28.5 GW21.3 to 34.5 GW= 6.25 to 10.1 median large U.S. reactors
Decay heat of one year's used fuel, 10 years later280 / 330 kW220 to 450 kW1-year value not established

About these numbers. Whole body = effective dose, the quantity FDA gives for CT, at a point 50 cm from the near surface of the piece. Skin = dose where the piece touches the skin, a different quantity, not comparable with a CT. Central values leave out scattered photons and beta particles, so from about a year after removal they are lower estimates; the one-day and one-month values also assume full power until removal, and could be somewhat high for a pebble that ran its last pass at lower power; the top of each dose range counts scattered photons. Fleet ranges run from the 9.6 GWe basis at its lowest to the 11.4 GWe basis at its highest. Volumes are loose pebbles or whole blocks, before any canisters or casks. No commercial Valar design was found in public records: every design quantity is a stated range.

Where these numbers come from

Show every step of the math The inputs and their sources, each step of the arithmetic, the full results table and how it was checked.

What the document says

NPR reported on 30 September 2026, citing a proposal from Valar to federal regulators that NPR reviewed, that Valar's 'Project Beehive' near Price would include data centers and "some 456 small nuclear reactors", with a fuel-production facility and waste-storage facilities, on over 9,000 acres of Bureau of Land Management land. NPR describes "Valar's 25-megawatt electric units" and says that in aggregate the reactors would produce "around 9.6 gigawatts of power for the data centers" and more heat for industry, with the first reactors in 2028 and the full site possibly by 2032. The proposal itself was not found in public records. BLM's public case layer lists 'Project Beehive Small Modular Reactor/Data Center' as a pending Valar application. Valar describes its Ward 250 test reactor as a helium-cooled reactor fueled by TRISO particles, but on the pages and papers we read it has published no commercial unit's heat output, fuel form, enrichment, burnup, refueling schedule or spent-fuel plan. At a 29 September 2026 town hall in Price, Valar officials said used fuel from its Carbon County project would first be stored on site in dry, sealed casks under federal licensing, and that no specific long-term disposal site outside the area had been identified (ETV News, 30 September 2026). This note connects NPR's numbers to the used fuel and radiation they imply, with every unknown shown as a range.

Given

  • N = 456 reactor units (NPR: 'some 456 small nuclear reactors') (RECORD: NPR, 30 Sept 2026, citing a Valar proposal NPR reviewed; the proposal was not found in public records)
  • P_unit = 25 MW of electricity per unit (RECORD: NPR ('Valar's 25-megawatt electric units'))
  • P_e = both carried: 9.6 GWe (NPR's aggregate 'for the data centers') and 11.4 GWe (456 x 25 MWe); the 1.8 GW difference is not explained in the article (RECORD: NPR; arithmetic ours)
  • Reactor type = helium-cooled, TRISO-fueled high-temperature gas reactor (said of Ward 250); Valar's mission page speaks of 'hundreds of reactors on one Gigasite'; no commercial-unit design figures found in Valar's public documents (RECORD: Valar, 'Ward 250 By the Numbers' and mission page)
  • Valar fuel element = Ward 250 block as DOE cleared it for shipment: 49.052 kg, 13.13 in across flats by 11.81 in tall, 170 compacts about 0.5 in by 2 in, at most 234.94 g of U-235 at up to 19.9-20%, so, if both are at their maximums, about 1.18 kg of uranium per block and 6.7 to 7.0 g per compact (the review also prints 1.33 g U-235 per compact, which does not multiply to 234.94 g) (RECORD: DOE Model 9979 safety evaluation report, 20 May 2026 (derived))
  • η = heat-to-electricity efficiency 0.33 to 0.45 (central 0.40) (ASSUMPTION, bounded by REFERENCE values: AVR 15/46 MW, Peach Bottom 40/115, Fort St. Vrain 330/842, THTR 300/750 (INL/EXT-10-19329); design targets 45% (Sandia); EIA's 33% example)
  • CF = capacity factor 0.80 to 0.95 (central 0.90) (ASSUMPTION; U.S. fleet 90.8% to 93.4% in 2016-2025 (EIA, REFERENCE); past gas-cooled reactors ran far less)
  • B = discharge burnup 80 to 170 GWd per metric ton of heavy metal (central 120) (ASSUMPTION within REFERENCE values: pebble-bed benchmark cases 80 to 204 (INL/EXT-20-60236), Xe-100 168 (X-energy report to NRC), prismatic MHTGR about 120 (INL catalog via Sandia; the only archived prismatic value))
  • p = core specific power 50 to 130 MW of heat per metric ton (central 100) (ASSUMPTION; pebble-bed references 99 to 128 (derived from INL, ANL, Sandia tables); no archived value for a low-enriched prismatic power plant)
  • Pebble = 6 cm pebble: 2.5 cm fuel zone inside a 0.5 cm graphite shell; 5 to 9 g of uranium (central 7); about 202 g whole; loose packing 0.60 to 0.74 (central 0.61) (REFERENCE: INL/EXT-20-60236 Tables 1-3, 8-10; ANL/NSE-22/98 Table 3-1; Sandia Table 3-1 (pebble mass derived))
  • Prismatic volume = 8.4 to 24.5 m³ per metric ton of uranium: Fort St. Vrain's thorium-bearing elements to the Ward 250 block as cleared (central: the cleared block) (REFERENCE: NWTRB Fort St. Vrain fact sheet; DOE Model 9979 review (derived))
  • y = chain yields per fission, U-235 / Pu-239 (thermal): Cs-137 6.189% / 6.614%; Sr-90 5.782% / 2.104%; also Zr-95, Ru-103, Ru-106, Cs-133 and Ce-144 (REFERENCE: England & Rider, Evaluation and Compilation of Fission Product Yields 1993 (Los Alamos, October 1994), Table 7 (a scanned table))
  • Pu share = share of fissions in plutonium, averaged over the fuel's life: 0 to 0.4 (central 0.3) (ASSUMPTION; the one archived inventory implies about 0.3 to 0.4)
  • Inventory = at about 120 GWd/t, g per metric ton: Cs-137 4,410; Sr-90 2,100; Cs-134 421; Ru-106 355; Eu-154 73; Sb-125 21.6 (REFERENCE: Sandia SAND2023-08602R Table A-1 (INL fuel cycle catalog, one prismatic design))
  • Capture products = Cs-134 matched to that inventory x 0.6 to 1.8; Np-239 0.35 to 0.55 per fission (0.47 derived); Eu-154 x 0.5 to 1.5; Sb-125 x 0.7 to 1.3; Cs-134 gamma 1.50 to 1.60 MeV per decay (ASSUMPTION (one archived inventory; enrichment and table time point unknown))
  • T½ = Cs-137 30.08 y; Sr-90 28.9 y; Cs-134 2.0652 y (REFERENCE: Sandia Table A-1 (a secondary DOE-laboratory compilation))
  • E_f = 200 MeV per fission (±3% assumed), so 2.70 x 10^21 fissions per MWd (REFERENCE: DOE-HDBK-1019/2-93; ±3% ASSUMPTION)
  • Dose engine = pf-007's published calculation, unchanged: gamma lines of 43 fission products, photon attenuation, ICRP 74 front-on conversion; whole body at 50 cm from the near surface; skin at contact (RECORD: pf-007 (its data limits carry over))
  • CT = 1 to 10 mSv effective dose for a typical CT scan (REFERENCE: FDA, What are the Radiation Risks from CT?)
  • Comparators = large U.S. reactors: median 3,411 MW of heat (middle half 2,797 to 3,630; 94 units), efficiency 0.300 to 0.343, burnup 50 to 60 GWd/t; U.S. spent fuel 2,000 to 2,200 t a year; U.S. nuclear capacity 98,436 MWe (2025) (REFERENCE: NRC NUREG-1350 App. A; ANL; NWTRB; DOE; EIA Table 6.07.B)
  • Decay heat = 10 years after discharge: Xe-100 32.2 and reference PWR 40.6 kW per GWe-year, so 12.9 to 13.8 kW per GW-year of heat (REFERENCE: ANL/NSE-22/98 Table E-2 (prepared for DOE))
  • Life = 20 and 40 years per unit; units start evenly from 2028 to 2032 (ASSUMPTION (no Valar operating life was found in public records); dates RECORD (NPR))
  • Pool = Olympic pool taken as 2,500 m³ (50 m x 25 m x 2 m) (ASSUMPTION (a nominal size))

Working

  1. 456 x 25 MWe = 11.4 GWe; NPR's aggregate: about 9.6 GW; 9.6 GW ÷ 456 = 21.05 MWe per unit; gap 1.8 GW = 15.8% of 11.4 GWe
    NPR does not reconcile its two numbers. The 9.6 GW may be the data centers' share (NPR adds 'even more thermal heat' for industry), or the whole fleet at about 21 MWe a unit. Read as heat, it does not fit: 9.6 GW would be 21 MW of heat per unit, less than each unit's rated 25 MW of electricity. Every result carries both electric figures; neither is picked. The proposal was not found in public records.
  2. Heat P_th = P_e ÷ η, η = 0.33 to 0.45 9.6 GWe: 21.3 to 29.1 GW of heat (central 24.0); 11.4 GWe: 25.3 to 34.5 (central 28.5); per unit 46.8 to 75.8 MW = 6.25 to 10.1 median large U.S. reactors (3,411 MW of heat); 5.88 to 12.4 across the middle half of U.S. units
    No commercial unit's heat output was found in Valar's public documents, so it follows from the electric figure and an efficiency. Gas-cooled plants have turned 33% (AVR), 35% (Peach Bottom), 39% (Fort St. Vrain) and 40% (THTR) of their heat into electricity; design targets reach 45%. Lower efficiency means more heat, and so more radioactive leftovers, for the same electricity. The fleet would be 9.8% (9.6 GWe) to 11.6% (11.4 GWe) of U.S. nuclear capacity.
  3. Heat made per year E = P_th x CF x 365.25 days, CF = 0.80 to 0.95 = 7,890 GWd a year (9.6 GWe basis) and 9,370 GWd a year (11.4 GWe basis); 6,230 to 12,000 GWd a year across both; fissions = E x 2.70 x 10^21 per MWd
    CF is the share of the year at full power. U.S. reactors ran 90.8% to 93.4% of the year in 2016-2025 (EIA); past gas-cooled reactors ran far less, and a lower CF lowers every yearly total in proportion. Every split uranium or plutonium atom leaves two radioactive fragments, so the leftovers follow the heat made, whoever buys the power.
  4. Used heavy metal per year = E ÷ B, B = 80 to 170 GWd per metric ton = 66 t (9.6 GWe basis) and 78 t (11.4 GWe basis); 37 to 150 t across both 20 years: 730 to 3,000 t; 40 years: 1,500 to 6,000 t (central 2,600 and 3,100); plus about half a core-load still in the reactors at the end: 82 to 350 t
    Burnup is the heat each metric ton of uranium gives before it is removed. This is 1.7% to 7.5% of the 2,000 to 2,200 t of spent fuel U.S. reactors discharge each year, and 0.29 to 0.75 of what a fleet of large water-cooled reactors making the same heat would discharge at 50 to 60 GWd/t. That lower uranium mass favors Valar's design type.
  5. Pebbles = heavy metal ÷ (5 to 9 g); mass = number x 202 g; bulk volume = number x 113.1 cm³ ÷ packing (0.60 to 0.74) per year: 4.1 to 30 million pebbles, 820 to 6,100 t, 620 to 5,600 m³ = 0.25 to 2.3 Olympic pools (central 0.70 and 0.83) 40 years: 10.0 to 90 pools (central 28 and 33)
    A 6 cm pebble holds a few grams of uranium in about 200 g of graphite, which is why this kind of used fuel is light in uranium but bulky. Volumes are loose pebbles only; canisters, casks and spacing would add more.
  6. Ward 250 blocks as DOE cleared them: about 1.18 kg uranium (at the maximum U-235 and enrichment), 49.052 kg and 0.0289 m³ each = 24.5 m³ and 41.6 t of block per metric ton of uranium per year: 31 to 130 thousand blocks, 1,500 to 6,200 t, 890 to 3,700 m³ = 0.36 to 1.5 pools; 40 years: 14 to 59 pools (central 26 and 31) denser prismatic fuel (8.4 m³ per metric ton): down to 310 m³ a year
    The block DOE cleared for shipment to Ward 250 is the only Valar fuel element on record; whether a commercial unit would use it, or pebbles, is not known. Valar's draft safety paper lists 250 kg of heavy metal in 76 elements for Ward 250 (3.29 kg each), which DOE's figures do not match. Standard power-plant blocks are larger, but no archived source gives their uranium loading for low-enriched fuel.
  7. Cs-137 made = fissions x yield; yield 6.19% (U-235) to 6.61% (Pu-239); Sr-90 5.78% to 2.10% per year: Cs-137 230 to 482 kg = 19.9 to 41.8 million curies (central 305 and 363 kg); Sr-90 105 to 288 kg = 14.5 to 39.6 million curies
    Cesium-137 and strontium-90, with half-lives of about 30 and 29 years, are the main long-lasting radioactive leftovers of the first few centuries. As fuel burns, plutonium made from uranium-238 also splits; it makes slightly more cesium-137 and much less strontium-90. Each year's cesium-137 would be about 5.57% to 12.6% of what all U.S. reactors make, because the fleet's heat is that share of theirs.
  8. Each unit runs L years; units start evenly over W = 4 years (2028 to 2032) Cs-137 left when the last unit stops = made x (1 − e^(−λL)) x (1 − e^(−λW)) ÷ (λ² W L), λ = ln 2 ÷ 30.08 y 40 years each: Cs-137 made 9,200 to 19,000 kg; left at the end 5,700 to 12,000 kg (498 to 1,040 million curies); 100 years later about 0.10 of that (570 to 1,200 kg); 300 years later 5.7 to 12 kg
    Cesium-137 decays while more is made, so not all of it is present at the end. Starting every unit at once would leave about 5% more. No Valar operating life was found in public records; per-year figures scale to any other life.
  9. Decay heat of one year's used fuel 10 years later = heat made (GW-years) x 12.9 to 13.8 kW per GW-year = 220 to 450 kW (central 280 and 330); 100 years later 43 to 110 kW; per GWe-year 28.6 to 41.8 kW (reference PWR 40.6)
    The ANL/INL study gives 32.2 kW per GWe-year for Xe-100 at 40% efficiency and 40.6 for a reference PWR at 34%; per unit of heat the two differ by about 7%. Per unit of electricity this fleet's used fuel gives off less heat than a PWR's unless its efficiency is at the low end. Decay heat sets how closely used fuel can be packed in storage. At one year it is higher still, but no archived reference value anchors it, so no figure is given.
  10. Activity of each fission product in one metric ton after running at specific power p to burnup B (T = B ÷ p) and cooling t: A = y x F x (1 − e^(−λT)) x e^(−λt) (pf-007) added: Pu-239 yields for five chains; Cs-134 from neutron capture on Cs-133, matched to the archived inventory; Eu-154 and Sb-125 tied to the same inventory; Np-239 from U-238 capture
    pf-007's calculation was built for a reactor that ran less than a month; commercial fuel runs for years. Over years, plutonium fissions and neutron capture add cesium-134, which carries about half the dose from a year-old fuel pebble. Without these additions the one-year dose would be 2.3 times too low (4.1 mSv instead of 9.2 at central inputs). Check: at 120 GWd/t and a plutonium share of 0.3, the model gives the archived inventory's Cs-137, Sr-90, Ru-106 and Cs-134 within 1.4% to 3.6%.
  11. Five minutes: whole body = effective dose at a point 50 cm from the near surface (ICRP 74 front-on); skin = dose where the piece touches the skin one 6 cm pebble (2.5 cm fuel zone in a 0.5 cm shell); one Ward 250 compact (1.27 x 5.08 cm, 6.7 to 7.0 g uranium) and one whole block (49 kg) as spheres of the same volume
    Same geometry and dose convention as pf-007. The central value counts only photons that leave the piece unscattered, so it is lower than a full count; counting scattered photons raises the whole-body dose about 1.36 times, the top of each range. Beta particles are not counted: a pebble's graphite shell stops most, but for a bare compact they would probably add more than the gamma dose. On the compact's real cylinder the contact dose is about 0.97 of the sphere's.
  12. One pebble, whole body, five minutes: 1 day 302 mSv (100 to 760); 30 days 86 mSv (29 to 220); 1 year 9.2 mSv (2.4 to 41); 10 years 1.6 mSv (0.63 to 5.1) skin touching it: 1 day 120,000 mSv (42,000 to 300,000); 1 year 3,800 mSv (980 to 17,000); 10 years 648 mSv (260 to 2,100) main sources: 1 day La-140 28%, I-132 14%, Nb-95 9%; 1 year Cs-134 49%, Cs-137+Ba-137m 17%, Nb-95 13%; 10 years Cs-137+Ba-137m 81%, Cs-134 14%
    Each range covers every combination of the uncertain inputs at their low and high ends (2,048 combinations). Specific power, burnup, uranium per pebble, the cesium-134 factor and scattered photons move it most. Held at 30 cm instead of 50 cm the whole-body dose is 2.6 times higher. For scale, FDA puts a typical CT at 1 to 10 mSv, and U.S. rules allow a radiation worker 500 mSv a year to the skin of the hands. Checked against published Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) calculations for spent pebbles: a year after removal our source gives 0.9 to 1.4 times ORNL's per-pebble gamma output, with cesium-137 within 4%; about four days after removal ORNL estimated 33.5 R/h at 1 m from one pebble, about half what this calculation gives for the same pebble (ORNL/SPR-2024/3615, ORNL/SPR-2023/2988).
  13. Cooling time until five minutes = one 10 mSv CT (whole body): one pebble 0.93 years (0.35 to 5.9); one compact 1.1 years (0.52 to 5.1); 50 cm from a whole Ward 250-type block 81 years (60 to 140) until 1 mSv: pebble 22 years (3.8 to 63); until the skin touching a pebble gets under 500 mSv in five minutes: 15 years (2.6 to 54)
    This favors Valar: about a year after removal, one used fuel pebble held for five minutes gives a whole-body dose inside FDA's CT range. The longest times need every dose-raising choice at once. A whole block, or many pebbles together, takes far longer, and the skin of a hand touching one pebble receives more than a worker's yearly hand limit in those five minutes for years longer.
  14. Independent checks at central inputs, one pebble: calculation A 9.0 mSv at 1 year, 0.91 years to one CT; calculation B 10.9 mSv, 1.10 years; this calculation 9.2 mSv, 0.93 years
    Two calculations were made independently from the same input table. With A's choices this calculation reproduces A exactly; with B's choices (half the scattered photons counted, neptunium-239, Eu-154 and Sb-125) it reproduces B within 2%. The differences are stated choices, mainly whether scattered photons count in the central value, not errors.
  15. Used-fuel volume vs a same-heat fleet of large water-cooled reactors (0.44 m³ of assemblies per metric ton): pebbles 11 to 64 times (central 25); Ward 250 blocks 16 to 42 times (central 23); denser prismatic fuel from 5.6 times per GWe-year: 4.8 to 14 t of uranium (PWR 21.7); pebbles 81 to 520 m³ (PWR 9.58); the same arithmetic gives ANL's Xe-100 figures: 5.40 t and 118 m³ (ANL: 5.41 and 118)
    Published studies differ mainly by method: ANL/INL found 12.3 times for Xe-100 pebbles packed as tightly as possible; the National Academies cite about 23.5 times (a vendor figure); Wainwright et al. (peer-reviewed) found 25 to 30 times for prismatic blocks, with 40 to 50% less mass and a repository about 30% smaller; Krall et al. (peer-reviewed) found 2 to 30 times for water-, salt- and sodium-cooled designs, analyzed no gas-cooled design, and are disputed by the other two. Graphite reflector blocks could add up to 24.5 m³ per GWe-year (ANL), 190 to 270 m³ a year here, if they stay in the reactor for its whole life; Valar's reflector design was not found in public records.

Results (central value, with the low-to-high range over every uncertain input). Part 1: one used fuel piece, five minutes. Part 2: the 456-unit fleet's used fuel

WhatCentralLow to highFor scale
PART 1. One 6 cm fuel pebble, whole body at 50 cm, five minutes
cooled 1 day302 mSv100 to 760 mSva typical CT: 1 to 10 mSv
cooled 30 days86 mSv29 to 220 mSv
cooled 1 year9.2 mSv2.4 to 41 mSv
cooled 2 years5.6 mSv1.4 to 27 mSv
cooled 5 years2.8 mSv0.87 to 12 mSv
cooled 10 years1.6 mSv0.63 to 5.1 mSv
Skin of the hand touching that pebble (gamma rays only), cooled 1 day120,000 mSv42,000 to 300,000 mSvU.S. yearly limit for a worker's hands: 500 mSv
same, cooled 1 year3,800 mSv980 to 17,000 mSv
same, cooled 10 years648 mSv260 to 2,100 mSv
Cooling until five minutes = one 10 mSv CT (pebble, whole body)0.93 years0.35 to 5.9 yearsfavors Valar: about a year
Cooling until five minutes = 1 mSv (pebble, whole body)22 years3.8 to 63 yearsbottom of the CT range
One Ward 250 compact (1.27 x 5.08 cm), whole body, cooled 1 day / 1 year / 10 years353 / 11 / 1.9 mSv160-640 / 3.8-35 / 1.0-4.3 mSv
Skin touching a compact (gamma only), cooled 1 day / 1 year1,100,000 / 37,000 mSv530,000-2,000,000 / 13,000-110,000 mSvbeta particles would add more
Cooling until five minutes = one CT: one compact; 50 cm from a whole Ward 250-type block (49 kg)1.1 years; 81 years0.52-5.1; 60-140 years
PART 2. The fleet, per year (9.6 GWe basis / 11.4 GWe basis)
Heat made24.0 / 28.5 GW21.3 to 34.5 GW= 6.25 to 10.1 median large U.S. reactors
Used fuel, metric tons of uranium (heavy metal)66 / 78 t37 to 150 tU.S. reactors: 2,000 to 2,200 t a year
As fuel pebbles: number9.4 / 11 million4.1 to 30 million
As fuel pebbles: weight and loose volume1,900 / 2,300 t; 1,700 / 2,100 m³820 to 6,100 t; 620 to 5,600 m³0.25 to 2.3 Olympic pools
As Ward 250 blocks (as DOE cleared them): number56 / 66 thousand31 to 130 thousand
As Ward 250 blocks: weight and volume2,700 / 3,200 t; 1,600 / 1,900 m³1,500 to 6,200 t; 890 to 3,700 m³0.36 to 1.5 Olympic pools
Cesium-137 made305 / 363 kg230 to 482 kg (19.9 to 41.8 million curies)5.57% to 12.6% of all U.S. reactors'
Strontium-90 made149 / 176 kg105 to 288 kg (14.5 to 39.6 million curies)
Decay heat of one year's used fuel, 10 years later280 / 330 kW220 to 450 kW1-year value not established
Over 40 years per unit: used uranium2,600 / 3,100 t1,500 to 6,000 tplus 82 to 350 t in the cores at the end
Over 40 years: fuel pebbles / Ward 250 blocks, Olympic pools28 / 33; 26 / 3110.0 to 90; 14 to 59before canisters and casks
Over 40 years, for comparison: large-reactor used fuel assemblies for the same heat, counted bare like the pebbles, Olympic pools1.1 / 1.30.73 to 1.7the pebbles take about 25 times the room
Cesium-137 present when the last unit stops (40 years each)7,600 / 9,100 kg5,700 to 12,000 kgabout 0.10 of it 100 years later
Uranium in used fuel vs large reactors making the same heat0.42 times0.29 to 0.75 timesfavors Valar: less uranium
Used-fuel volume vs large reactors making the same heat: fuel pebbles / Ward 250 blocks25 / 23 times11 to 64 / 16 to 42 timesstudies: 12 to 30 times

Whole body = effective dose, the quantity FDA gives for CT, at a point 50 cm from the near surface of the piece. Skin = dose where the piece touches the skin, a different quantity, not comparable with a CT. Central values leave out scattered photons and beta particles, so from about a year after removal they are lower estimates; the one-day and one-month values also assume full power until removal, and could be somewhat high for a pebble that ran its last pass at lower power; the top of each dose range counts scattered photons. Fleet ranges run from the 9.6 GWe basis at its lowest to the 11.4 GWe basis at its highest. Volumes are loose pebbles or whole blocks, before any canisters or casks. No commercial Valar design was found in public records: every design quantity is a stated range.

Result

On NPR's figures (456 units; 9.6 or 11.4 GWe), the fleet would make 21.3 to 34.5 GW of heat. That equals 6.25 to 10.1 median large U.S. reactors, so it would make about the same radioactive leftovers: 230 to 482 kg of cesium-137 and 105 to 288 kg of strontium-90 a year, 5.57% to 12.6% of all U.S. reactors' output. Its used fuel would hold 37 to 150 t of uranium a year, 0.29 to 0.75 times what large reactors making the same heat would leave. Because that uranium sits in graphite, it would fill 0.25 to 2.3 Olympic pools a year as loose fuel pebbles (10.0 to 90 pools over 40 years), or 0.36 to 1.5 pools as Ward 250-type blocks. That is 11 to 64 times (pebbles) or 16 to 42 times (blocks) the volume of same-heat large-reactor fuel, before packaging. One used fuel pebble held for five minutes gives the whole body 302 mSv a day after removal (100 to 760) and 9.2 mSv after a year (2.4 to 41). It falls to one 10 mSv CT after 0.93 years (0.35 to 5.9), while the skin touching it receives 120,000 mSv at one day (42,000 to 300,000) and 3,800 mSv at one year (980 to 17,000). These numbers rest on NPR's account of a proposal not found in public records, and no commercial Valar design was found in public records, so every design quantity is a range.

In plain terms: On September 30, 2026, NPR reported on Valar's 'Project Beehive.' About 456 small nuclear reactors would power data centers near Price, and the site would also have a place to make fuel and places to store nuclear waste. NPR read Valar's proposal to the federal government; it was not found in public records. No details of these reactors were found in Valar's public documents either. So we did the math with ranges from published reference numbers, and say where those numbers are thin. NPR gives two sizes: 456 units of 25 megawatts each, which would make 11.4 gigawatts of electricity, and about 9.6 gigawatts. We did every calculation both ways. Same heat, same leftovers. A reactor makes heat by splitting uranium atoms, and every split leaves radioactive pieces behind. So the leftovers depend on how much heat is made, not on whether it comes from a few big reactors or many small ones. Beehive's reactors together would make as much heat as 6 to 10 of today's big U.S. reactors, and so about the same leftovers: each year, 230 to 480 kilograms of cesium-137 and about 100 to 300 kilograms of strontium-90. Each takes about 30 years to lose half its strength. How much used fuel? This fuel is tiny grains of uranium packed in graphite, a form of carbon. Many reactors of this type use fuel pebbles, which DOE describes as billiard ball-sized; Valar has not said what size or shape of fuel Beehive would use, so this page uses a standard 6 cm pebble as a stand-in. Beehive would use up 4 to 30 million of them a year. Piled loose, they would fill from a quarter of an Olympic swimming pool to more than two pools a year, and 10 to 90 pools over 40 years, before any storage containers. Fuel blocks like those in Valar's Emery County test reactor would fill about a third of a pool to one and a half pools a year. With all that graphite, the used fuel would take 11 to 64 times the space of used fuel from big reactors making the same heat. There is another side, and it is in Valar's favor. The used fuel would hold less uranium: 0.29 to 0.75 of what those big reactors would leave. Studies also find it gives off less heat for each unit of electricity made, and our numbers agree unless the reactors turn the least of their heat into electricity. One study found it could fit in a smaller underground repository. If the reactors run less of the year, there is less waste. And if Valar's reactors turn more of their heat into electricity than big U.S. reactors do (33% to 45%, against about 30% to 34%), they make less heat, and fewer leftovers, for each unit of electricity; our count of 6 to 10 big reactors already includes this. What one fuel pebble does. We used the same method as our check of Valar's CT-scan claim (pf-007). Radiation dose is measured in millisieverts (mSv); a normal CT scan gives the body 1 to 10 mSv. Holding one used fuel pebble for five minutes, a day after it leaves a reactor, would give the whole body about 300 mSv (100 to 760, depending on the unknowns), about 30 times the top of a CT scan's range. The skin of the hand holding it would get about 120,000 mSv (42,000 to 300,000); U.S. rules let a radiation worker get 500 mSv to the hands in a whole year. The pebble cools fast at first. In Valar's favor: after about a year (4 months to 6 years), five minutes with one pebble gives the body about one CT scan's worth of radiation. But the hand would still get more than a worker's yearly hand limit for about 15 years (2.6 to 54). A whole block used in a power reactor, or many pebbles together, is much stronger: standing half a meter from one such block for five minutes gives more than a CT scan for about 80 years (60 to 140). What we do not know. No Valar statement of how much heat each reactor makes, which fuel shape it will use, or how long the fuel stays in was found in public records. At a town hall in Price on September 29, 2026, Valar officials said used fuel from its Carbon County project would first be stored on site in dry, sealed casks under federal licensing, and that a national storage or disposal option could be used in the future, but that no specific long-term disposal site outside the area had been identified (ETV News). NPR mentions waste storage on the site, but no written plan for it was found in public records. That is why our answers are ranges.
What would settle it: Valar publishing the commercial unit's design basis: the heat each unit makes and which of NPR's two totals (9.6 or 11.4 GW of electricity) is right; the fuel form (pebbles or blocks) and the uranium in each element; enrichment; burnup and specific power; how often fuel is replaced and how long units run; and the used-fuel plan: how much, how it is packaged, where on the site it is stored and for how long, and where it goes after that. Releasing the proposal NPR reviewed would settle most of this.

Sources

Checked: Two calculations were made independently from the same input table: one built on pf-007's published dose calculation, one written separately with its own nuclear data and shielding code. A third check re-ran both (each gave identical output on a second run), reproduced the first exactly and the second within 2% when given the same choices, and traced every difference to a stated choice, mainly whether scattered photons count in the central value. Every input was re-read in its archived copy; the fission yields come from a scanned table and were read from the scanned pages. The same arithmetic reproduces the ANL/INL study's Xe-100 figures (5.40 t and 118 m3 per GWe-year, against 5.41 and 118). NPR's quotes were checked against the article. Afterward we added pictures, built from the model's numbers and checked against them; reworded some plain-language sentences; now use the engineering word 'pebble' for the fuel spheres throughout; and added one table row (big reactors' used fuel in Olympic pools, worked out with the model's own formula and inputs). Separate reviews checked the pictures' numbers, wording and drawing, and the fixes were checked again. A later check against published Oak Ridge National Laboratory calculations for spent pebbles found the per-pebble figures within a factor of 2 of every usable one, and led to a note that the one-day and one-month values may be somewhat high.